Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 162.524670 195.771329 236.563890 291.153410 363.637745 4.585860e+02 5.958849e+02
2025-04-13 120.005576 156.901714 207.645329 285.192834 405.910257 5.967165e+02 9.451179e+02
2025-04-20 104.139200 144.813668 205.914351 309.998867 496.178208 8.477878e+02 1.669339e+03
2025-04-27 92.810532 135.331542 203.801057 331.352610 588.906187 1.163995e+03 2.906551e+03
2025-05-04 83.678268 126.753809 200.171468 347.736661 679.757608 1.550292e+03 5.044120e+03
2025-05-11 75.791833 118.431291 194.607906 357.996793 762.973237 2.001248e+03 8.751536e+03
2025-05-18 68.663447 110.033783 186.860130 360.942400 830.729748 2.489851e+03 1.506982e+04
2025-05-25 61.932298 101.227093 176.469112 354.707245 871.207379 2.944275e+03 2.499802e+04
2025-06-01 55.993994 93.016221 165.726678 344.539944 895.718564 3.382563e+03 4.128548e+04
2025-06-08 50.929293 85.788280 155.768001 333.623060 913.233288 3.834674e+03 7.021079e+04
2025-06-15 49.913815 86.216340 162.065903 367.017101 1110.612753 5.826507e+03 3.340503e+05
2025-06-22 46.840733 82.137903 157.697208 369.771311 1194.318726 7.337184e+03 1.478754e+06
2025-06-29 44.614921 79.674349 156.976797 384.433003 1351.036820 1.036691e+04 1.362938e+08
2025-07-06 41.407361 74.801545 149.829296 377.438071 1403.878839 1.267298e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 40.695909 75.142804 155.379316 413.793611 1728.965271 2.265684e+04 NaN
2025-07-20 39.691822 74.705457 158.907632 445.219528 2080.722376 4.158587e+04 NaN
2025-07-27 38.416912 73.495963 160.206595 469.485477 2435.071635 7.772131e+04 NaN
2025-08-03 36.903039 71.557533 159.201408 484.755385 2758.952025 1.455048e+05 NaN
2025-08-10 35.167410 68.911565 155.798484 489.149943 3007.237186 2.622266e+05 NaN
2025-08-17 33.183868 65.484414 149.667077 479.853843 3114.873136 4.129511e+05 NaN
2025-08-24 31.215440 61.923369 142.681308 464.741789 3145.687499 6.045884e+05 NaN
2025-08-31 29.393063 58.566342 135.876605 448.580789 3148.526861 8.732337e+05 NaN
2025-09-07 29.384526 59.640126 142.437307 498.227555 4114.272713 1.642389e+07 NaN